The Great Southern Shift: Why Housing Affordability is Driving Queenslanders to Victoria

An in-depth analysis of the latest property and migration data reveals a surprising trend in Australia's interstate movements, driven by a dramatic affordability shift.

Jasmine Amari's avatarJasmine Amari
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The Great Southern Shift: Why Housing Affordability is Driving Queenslanders to Victoria

The North-South Migration Reversal

For years, the narrative has been consistent: Australians, particularly Victorians, have flocked north to Queensland in search of sun and more affordable housing. However, the latest data from Q1 2025 reveals a stunning reversal. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Victoria has recorded a net inflow of interstate migration for the first time since the pandemic began. While the figure of 440 people is modest, it signals a significant turning point, especially as it coincides with Queensland's interstate migration dropping to its lowest point since 2016.

Unpacking the Price Explosion: Queensland vs. Victoria

The driving force behind this demographic shift is a dramatic divergence in property market performance. Data from PropTrack paints a stark picture: over the five years to August 2025, Brisbane's dwelling values skyrocketed by an astonishing 92%, while Melbourne's saw a comparatively modest 19.3% rise. This trend isn't confined to the capitals; Regional Queensland values jumped 91%, dwarfing the 39.5% growth in Regional Victoria. What was once one of Australia's most accessible markets has transformed into the nation's second most expensive, trailing only New South Wales.

PropTrack data shows Queensland property values have dramatically outpaced Victorian values over the last five years, fundamentally altering the affordability landscape between the two states.
PropTrack data shows Queensland property values have dramatically outpaced Victorian values over the last five years, fundamentally altering the affordability landscape between the two states.

The Widening Affordability Gap

This price surge has created a significant financial barrier for Queensland residents. As of August 31, 2025, Brisbane's median dwelling value of $936,000 stood a substantial $106,000 (13%) higher than Melbourne's. The gap is even more pronounced in regional areas, where Regional Queensland's median of $738,000 is $177,000 (32%) greater than Regional Victoria's. Further analysis from Canstar estimates that Queenslanders now need to earn approximately $100,000 more per year than they did before the pandemic to afford a typical home, placing immense pressure on household budgets. This is a critical factor pushing people to look south for opportunities.

What This Means for Your Property Journey

Understanding these powerful market currents is crucial for any prospective buyer or investor. The data clearly shows that traditional assumptions about affordability are being upended. For Queenslanders feeling the price pinch, Victoria now presents a viable, more affordable alternative. Conversely, Victorian homeowners may find their relative purchasing power has increased significantly. To navigate this complex landscape, leveraging detailed market intelligence is no longer an option—it's a necessity. Tools that provide comprehensive real estate analytics are essential for comparing suburbs, tracking growth trends, and identifying opportunities that align with your financial goals.

The median dwelling value in Brisbane is now significantly higher than in Melbourne, highlighting a major shift in housing affordability that influences interstate migration.
The median dwelling value in Brisbane is now significantly higher than in Melbourne, highlighting a major shift in housing affordability that influences interstate migration.

Conclusion

The migration tide is turning. The data confirms that Queensland's meteoric property price rise has eroded its affordability advantage, prompting a nascent but notable flow of residents south to Victoria. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of the Australian property market and highlights the importance of staying informed. For those looking to make their next move, a data-driven approach is the surest path to success, whether that means finding an affordable family home or a high-growth investment.

Ready to make sense of the market? Our cutting-edge Real Estate Analytics Hub provides the clarity you need to make confident property decisions. Explore suburb data, compare investment potential, and uncover hidden opportunities today.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why have Queensland property prices increased so much?

Several factors contributed to Queensland's price boom, including high interstate migration during the pandemic, strong economic activity, relatively low interest rates (in the initial period), and a perceived lifestyle advantage. This surge in demand outstripped supply, leading to rapid price appreciation.

Is Melbourne now officially cheaper than Brisbane?

Based on median dwelling values as of August 2025, yes. Brisbane's median value has surpassed Melbourne's, marking a significant historical shift. This makes Melbourne and many parts of Regional Victoria comparatively more affordable for the first time in recent memory.

How can I find the most affordable suburbs in Victoria?

Finding value requires a detailed analysis of market data. Using an advanced tool like HouseSeeker's AI Property Search allows you to filter by specific lifestyle needs and budget constraints, while our AI Buyer's Agent can provide personalised recommendations based on real-time analytics to pinpoint suburbs that offer the best value and growth potential.